GTA home sales, prices expected to remain stable: TRREB

This year’s housing market is being shaped by improved buyer choice and affordability but consumers across the Greater Toronto Area – which includes York Region – remain “cautious” about committing to long-term mortgage payments.

That’s according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review report.

“The housing market reflects the tension many households are feeling as we look ahead to 2026,” TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld says. “Affordability has improved but uncertainty continues to weigh on long-term decisions like homeownership. Greater economic clarity in the months ahead could restore confidence and help unlock demand that has been building for several years.”

The GTA average price forecast range for 2026 is between $1 million and $1.03 million. Elevated inventory levels across most market segments are expected to continue providing buyers with substantial negotiating power, especially in the condominium apartment market. Average selling prices will likely be lower year-over year in the first half of 2026 before stabilizing in the second half if buyers start moving off the sidelines and market conditions tighten, TRREB says.

This year’s report and interactive digital digest include new Ipsos consumer polling results. The Ipsos Home Buyers Survey found GTA homebuying intentions for 2026 declined to 22 per cent – a year-over-year drop of five percentage points despite improved affordability. Ipsos polling also shows 45 per cent of intending homebuyers this year will be first-time buyers.

Ipsos research also points to sustained rental demand across the GTA in 2026, supported in part by continued immigration, as many newcomer households rent before transitioning into homeownership. Despite improved affordability in the homeownership market, renter households face a gap of nearly $600 per month between affordable mortgage payments and the mortgage payments required to purchase the type of home they want. That affordability gap may result in many households remaining in the rental market longer than anticipated, TRREB notes.

What are policymakers telling TRREB? “York Region is one of the fastest-growing communities in Ontario,” says York Region Chairman and CEO Eric Jolliffe. “With nearly 1.3 million residents, we are planning for more than two million people and one million jobs by 2051. While other regions are experiencing significant outmigration, recent community opinion research shows fewer than 14 per cent of York Region residents are considering leaving due to affordability.

“This underscores the importance of maintaining the quality of life that keeps people rooted here. To support continued growth, we are accelerating work across three key areas: increasing housing supply, improving affordability and supporting complete, connected communities.”

For more insights, head to the digital digest and download the full report.